Do Movie Budgets Predict Success?
Every studio would love to produce a movie that sells millions of tickets. Does spending a lot to make a movie result in greater ticket sales?
Choose Your Data:
Animated Movies Nominated for the Academy Award 2010–2013**
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| Movie Name | Cost (in millions) | Revenue (in millions) |
|---|
| Brave (2013) | 255 | 554.6 |
| Frankenweenie (2013) | 75 | 81.1 |
| ParaNorman (2013) | 83 | 107.6 |
| The Pirates! Band of Misfits (2013) | 87 | 123.1 |
| Wreck-It Ralph (2013) | 230 | 442.1 |
| Kung Fu Panda 2 (2012) | 220 | 661.7 |
| Puss in Boots (2012) | 190 | 554.8 |
| Rango (2012) | 195 | 244.8 |
| How to Train Your Dragon (2011) | 235 | 494.9 |
| Toy Story 3 (2011) | 270 | 1,064.0 |
| Coraline (2010) | 80 | 121.6 |
| Fantastic Mr. Fox (2010) | 62 | 46.5 |
| The Princess and the Frog (2010) | 155 | 267.4 |
| Up (2010) | 245 | 731.5 |
Animated Movie Cost Compared to Revenue 2010-2013**
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Discussion Question:
Based on the line of best fit, how much revenue would you expect from a movie that cost $160 million to make?
Discussion Question:
Do you think the line of best fit would be a good predictor of the revenue a movie that cost $400 million would make?
Answer:
It is hard to say with certainty how well a movie costing $400 million would do. Given that $400 million is almost 50% greater than $270 million (the greatest cost in the sample), students should be wary of making a prediction based on the line of best fit. Lines of best fit are a useful tool, but should not be followed blindly well beyond the maximum data point in the sample without considering the real-world context of the data.
Photos: theater seats, © Karramba Production/Shutterstock; tickets, © Maria Dragomer/Shutterstock.